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预判2019|客车市场何去何从?或将面临行业洗牌

2019-2-11 17:04 | 来自:商用车新网 |原作者: 刘一乐

  2018年的客车市场不仅是风雨飘摇的一年,也是异常艰难的一年。普遍的圈内认知是“客车行业已经入冬,并?#19968;岢中!?#38754;对大环?#36710;?#32771;验,对于2019年的客车行业的兴衰,各企业都在静候一场新的行业“洗牌”。

经济动力不足 市场进入“降速增质”阶段


  国?#24066;问?#22797;杂严峻,经济面临下行压力的背景下,市场上时常有担忧甚至悲观之声。对于国家来?#25285;?#31283;定汽车消费迫在眉睫。

  不久前,国家发改委会同工业和信息化部、商务部等十部委联合印发《进一步优化供给推动消费平稳增长促进形成强大国内市场的实施方案》,要求多措并举促进汽车消费,无疑给整体并不乐观的汽车一颗定心丸。

  社科院预测2019年我国GDP增长率为6.3%,比上一年减少0.3个百分点。对于客车市场而言,经济处于转型升级和结构调整的时期,传统动能减弱,新动能不足成为主导环境,客车市场或会进入到“降速增质”阶段。

旅游蓬勃发展 “定制客运”或大展拳脚


  我国步入大众旅?#38382;?#20195;,2018年国内旅游人数约为55.4亿人次,同比分别增长10.76%。《中国旅游消费大数据报告2018》预测,2019年旅游消费活力将进一步蓄积和释放。我国公众出行半径和旅游半径不断增大,出行总量仍在稳步增长。

  铁路、民航、城际车、网约车、私家车运输能力的大幅增加,对传?#36710;?#36335;运输行业带来?#21496;?#22823;的冲击,道路客运行业经历了大规模下滑、萎缩与冷清。

  2018年,甘肃、江西、四川等地管理部门出台纷纷政策,积极引导“定制客运”发展。双鸭山市顺达运输集团、龙运客运等企业开始探索定制客运产品,打造道路客运升级版。

  2019年,伴随旅游产业的蓬勃发展和政策鼓励下,旅游客车有望成为受益方,还会助推动客车?#38469;?#21319;级。

政策不明朗 校车市场面临大考


  2018年,校车的产销成绩着?#30340;?#30475;。由于地区发展不均衡、公交网络完善、运营效?#23454;?#31561;原因影响,销量下滑的背后,是校车在全国?#27573;?#20869;推广的举步维艰。

  近日,校车安全管理?#32771;?#32852;席会议办公室发布2019年第1号预警,提醒学生及?#39029;?#22362;决抵制乘坐“黑校车?#20445;?#20999;实保障?#34892;?#23398;生和幼儿上下学交通安全。

  遗憾的是,关注“校车安全”的同时却一直没有更好引导校车发展。国家一直未出台校车服务标准,许多企业因为政策不明而裹足不前。由于校车运营成本高,利润低,税收政策未落?#25285;?#25152;以社会?#26102;静?#19982;校车运营的热情并不高。不难看出,2019年的校车市场的前景,可能面临大考。

新能源?#22266;?#36864;坡 产品实力派将出位


  我国是世界?#29486;?#22823;的新能源汽车市场,?#22266;?#36864;坡的同时,预计高续航、高能量密度车型将获比?#27927;?#30340;支持。国家新能源局建立了“退坡、调整、退出”机制,显然将引导新能源客车进入市场化?#34892;?#31454;争。

  政策一端弱化,市场的另一端必会将强,只是市场主导下,车企显得格外小心谨慎。2017年有销量的客车品牌126个,?#34892;?#33021;源销量的90个,占比71%,2018年有销量的客车品牌110个,?#34892;?#33021;源销量的74个,占比67%。但继续生产新能源客车的车企也认识到,新能源客车成本的下降和?#32422;?#27604;的提升,将在一定程度上对冲掉?#22266;?#36864;坡的成本。

  新能源的趋势不可逆,产品必将向智能化、科技化、清洁化发展,2019年,也是考验提高新能源核心?#38469;?#30340;一年,实力派必将吊打演技派。

  今天是新年开工的第一天,2019年序幕已经拉开,未来客车市场将如何发展,还需各方拭目?#28304;?/div>
【凡属本站原创文章,如转载请注明“来自:商用车新网”】

发布者: liuyl| 来自: |
【一周新闻?#21028;小?/span>
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氢燃料商用车有望率先步入商业化运营
氢燃料电池汽车的数?#31354;?#22312;“悄然”增?#21360;?#25454;相关专业机构统计,第一?#24452;齲?#27682;燃料电池汽
宇通客车助力青岛加快推进全域旅游建设
宇通客车助力青岛加快推进全域旅游建设
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140台首度携手,?#22411;?#30005;动客车揭开首都市场新篇章!
140台首度携手,?#22411;?#30005;动客车揭开首都市场
进入5月中旬,140台?#22411;?.5米纯电动公交开始陆续交付北京公共交通控股(集团)有限公司
北京世园会集约化出行比例达64%
北京世园会集约化出行比例达64%
5月14日,记者从市交通委获悉,世园会开园半个月以来,交通出行运行平稳,全市交通行
宇通欧辉海格?#37096;?#21516;比逆市大增!4月份新能源客车销?#39063;判?#27036;出炉
宇通欧辉海格?#37096;?#21516;比逆市大增!4月份新能
据中国客车统计信息网最新统计数据显示,在6米以上新能源客车领域,2019年4月份,涉及

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